Residential Market Commentary - Trump and Canada’s economy

  • First National Financial LP

The re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States will have economic and social repercussions in Canada.

There was an, almost, immediate reaction to the re-election in the bond market which drives fixed-rate mortgage pricing.  Yields jumped triggering rate increases by some lenders.

In the days after the election, the yield on 10-year U.S. treasury bills rose 14 basis-points to more than 4.4%.  Five-year Government of Canada bond yields climbed to 3.11%.  Some lenders responded with fixed-rate increases of 5 to 10 basis-points.

The high level of integration between Canada and America usually means a strong economy there is good here.  But there can be a downside.  A pro-growth agenda that includes more tax cuts and government spending would likely increase the U.S. national debt.  In turn the government would issue more bonds, which would depress bond prices and raise yields, putting upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgage costs in the U.S. and here.

One of the president-elect’s biggest campaign promises is seen as highly inflationary: a 10% tariff on virtually everything entering the U.S.  Earlier this year 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter saying Trump’s proposals would “reignite” inflation, potentially pushing it back above 9.0%.  That would end rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and likely the Bank of Canada as well. 

Threats of mass deportations, made by the incoming U.S. president, have triggered concerns about a surge in asylum seekers coming to Canada as this country struggles to adjust to higher immigration and population growth.

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